Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
